Jannik Sinner, No. 1 ranking pulls away again
Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal in the third round of the Shanghai ATP 1000 has made his run to return to world No. 1 as early as 2025 that much more complicated. The South Tyrolean, stopped by cramps at 3-2 in the third set against Tallon Griekspoor, had to raise the white flag and bid farewell to the tournament, leaving behind 950 valuable points: he had triumphed in China last year. His haul thus drops to 10,000 points, while Carlos Alcaraz, absent in Shanghai and penalized only 200 points (quarters reached in 2024), remains in front with 11,340 points. The gap between the two is now 1,340 lengths.
Although the scenario appears complicated, a chink remains for Sinner. With a series of difficult but not impossible fits, the Blue could find himself at the top even for just one week, which would be the 66th of his career, just before the Finals in Turin. There, in any case, he is already certain to show up as the No. 2 seed. Alcaraz, on the other hand, does not yet have in his pocket the mathematical certainty of ending the year as the ranking leader.
The calendar is not yet in his pocket.
The calendar plays a decisive role. After a scoreless performance at the Six Kings Slam in Saudi Arabia (with Alcaraz in attendance), Sinner will return to the court at the ATP 500 in Vienna. The Spaniard will not take the court until the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000. Should he win the title in Austria, Sinner would narrow the gap to 840 points. The chance to return to No. 1, at least temporarily, would then come through two scenarios: victory in both Vienna and Paris, with Alcaraz stopped before the semifinals; or final in Vienna and triumph in Paris, provided the Murcian does not go beyond the round of 16 in the French capital.
The rankings would be based on the following two scenarios.
The rankings will be updated on Sunday, Nov. 9, just before the Finals. At that time Sinner will have to deal with the loss of the 1,500 points he won in Turin in 2024, while Alcaraz will leave only 200 points behind.
This means that the Spaniard is already guaranteed to show up at the Finals as world No. 1. However, the final verdict on the season-ending lead is not yet written: Sinner can still go for it, although Alcaraz seems to have destiny in his own hands.
