Inter 2025/26: offensive balance and defensive risk in the Scudetto race

A star start, but not without risks

After ten days of Serie A 2025/26, Cristian Chivu’s Inter occupies second position in the standings, the result of 7 wins and 3 losses, with an average of 2.10 points per game. This is an overall excellent performance, but one that also reveals a fragile side: the Nerazzurri score a lot (24 goals in 10 games), but concede more than would be expected from a team aiming for the Scudetto.

Statistical analysis provides a clear picture: 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, with a positive but not dominant goal difference. The home performance remains a certainty – 4 wins out of 5, 80% success rate at San Siro – while away from Milan the numbers drop significantly (60% wins and 40% losses).

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Scudetto offense: average of 2.4 goals and a collective buildup

With 2.4 goals per match and an average xG (expected goals) of 2.03 per match, Inter shows a very high offensive efficiency. Inzaghi’s team builds and finalizes with regularity, with an attack distributed among several players:

• Hakan Çalhanoğluis the top scorer with 5 goals;
• Marcus Thuram, Lautaro Martínez and Ange-Yoan Bonny followed with 3 goals each;
• Federico Dimarco, Denzel Dumfries, Petar Sučić and Nicolo Barella round out the list of scorers.

An interesting aspect is the variety of offensive sources: Inter does not depend on a single bomber, but distributes production on at least eight different players, a sign of a team that knows how to create danger from multiple areas of the field. This choral approach is also confirmed by the figure on assists, led by Bonny, Dimarco and Barella (3 each), followed by Lautaro and Sučić (2).

At the time level, the team scores in both halves 60% of the time, with a clear prevalence in the second half (1.40 goals in the second half versus 1 in the first). This suggests a progressive strategy: Inter tends to consolidate dominance over the course of the match, taking advantage of the physical and mental decline of the opponents.

Offensive trends: constant pace and internal precision

Analyzing the time windows, the Nerazzurri score most frequently in the segments 11′-20′ and 51′-90′, where they concentrate over 60% of total goals. The statistics indicate a team capable of getting into the match right away and maintaining intensity until the final minutes.

At home, Inter produces 3 goals per game, scoring every 30 minutes, while on the road the average drops to 1.8 goals and one goal every 50 minutes. 100% of home matches have seen at least one Inter goal, and in 70% of total matches the team has exceeded 1.5 goals.

Also noteworthy is the precision in finalizing: no games without scoring (0% “failed to score”), a fact that testifies to the consistency in scoring and the quality of offensive choices. Only 40 percent of the matches, however, exceeded the 2.5-goal threshold, a sign of some pace management once ahead.

Defense in chiaroscuro: intermittent solidity

On the defensive front, the numbers show a more complex situation. Inter concedes 1.2 goals per game, a value that puts it in the “averagely vulnerable” bracket for a title contender.
The xG against is 1.05 per match, so the actual goals conceded slightly exceed expectations, suggesting a possible lack of concentration at key moments.

The most illustrative data concerns the home/tour difference:

• 0.8 goals conceded on average at San Siro (one goal every 113 minutes),
• 1.6 goals conceded away from home (one every 56 minutes).

This translates into a percentage of clean sheets of 40%, unchanged between home and away, but with uneven distribution: narrow defeats (such as against Udinese and Napoli) show a defense that struggles to maintain concentration for 90 minutes.

Interesting also is the temporal distribution of goals conceded: 66% come in the final halves (31′-40′ and 81′-90′), areas traditionally linked to lapses in attention or incomplete defensive transitions. 33% of goals conceded are even concentrated in the last ten minutes, a wake-up call for a team that aspires to continuity.

First and second halves: two faces of the same Inter

Statistics by fractions of the game confirm the visual impression: Inter grows as the minutes pass.
In the first halfit had 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats (points average 1.7), with 1 goal scored and 0.6 concededon average.
In the second half, on the other hand, the points average rises to 1.9, with 5 wins, 4 draws and only one defeat.

This highlights conscious management of the game, but also the risk of “giving away” early stages to opponents. The case of the defeat with Juventus (4-3), where Inter conceded three goals in the first half hour before reacting, is emblematic.
The figure on BTTS (both teams scoring) – 60% overall – reinforces the perception of a team always involved in open games, with precarious balance between control and verticality.

High tempo soccer: 3.6 average goals per game

Inter matches produce on average 3.6 total goals (3.8 at home, 3.4 away), numbers that place the Nerazzurri among the most spectacular teams in Serie A.
In 90% of the matches we go over 1.5 total goals and in 80% over 2.5. However, only in 30 percent do they go over 4.5 goals, indicating that Inter alternates between explosive matches and more managed performances.

For those who analyze the tactical aspect, this means that the team manages to adapt: when intensity is needed, it brings it; when control is needed, it lowers the pace and center of gravity. It is a dynamic balance, but still fragile, especially when the pressure mounts.

Perspectives and room for improvement

With title-winning offensive production and a defense still being broken in, Inter 2025/26 remains one of the favorites for the Scudetto. However, to consolidate the lead will need more continuity away from homeand a more solid mental management in the final halves.

The group is mature, but the figures say that the room for growth passes through one crucial detail: reducing defensive errors without sacrificing the offensive proactivity that makes Inter one of the most entertaining and unpredictable teams in the league.

If the trend of 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded were to continue, the nerazzurriwill certainly remain in the fight until the last day – but to turn excellent statistics into trophies, it will take a defense worthy of the offense’s level.