Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: who will the number 17 bring luck to?

The duel between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz has become, in just a few years, the rivalry that best chronicles the present and future of world tennis. The record speaks for itself: 16 official challenges, with Alcaraz ahead 10-6. But the most interesting fact is not just the overall score. It is the way this confrontation has grown, changing surface, context and specific weight, until it has turned into a total challenge.

The first spark comes in Paris-Bercy, on November 3, 2021. In the second round of the Paris Masters, Alcaraz wins in two tight sets, 7-6 7-5. It is still the beginning of it all, but already we can see the common thread of the rivalry: balance, sudden accelerations, points played always on the edge. From there on, the confrontation picks up and moves to the big stages.

In 2022 come three matches that immediately define the depth of the face-off. At Wimbledon Sinner dominates the round of 16 in four sets, showing clear superiority for long stretches. A few weeks later, in Umag, the Italian also takes the final on clay, confirming that he can hold the Spaniard’s pace and variety even on a surface less immediate for his tennis. Then comes the night of the U.S. Open, probably one of the most iconic chapters of the rivalry: five hours and eighteen minutes, quarterfinals, Alcaraz’s victory in five sets after a fierce battle. It is the match that delivers their duel to a higher dimension.

In 2023 the balance remains perfect. Alcaraz wins the Indian Wells semifinal, Sinner responds in Miami and then repeats in Beijing. At that time the balance settles at 4-3 for the Italian, a sign of a very open rivalry in which no one can really get the upper hand. Each match seems like a correction of the previous one: when one gives the impression of having found the key, the other comes right back to put everything back on the table.

2024 marks a new turning point. Alcaraz wins again in Indian Wells and, more importantly, wins in the semifinals of Roland Garros, in five sets, in a very tough challenge that weighs not only the result but the context. Sinner held, fought, took the match all the way, but it was the Spaniard who came out better in the decisive moments. From there on, Alcaraz builds a more consistent advantage also thanks to his success in the Beijing final, another balanced match decided by a few details.

2025 is the year in which the rivalry definitively explodes also on a symbolic level. Alcaraz won the final of the Internazionali d’Italia in Rome and then signed another feat at Roland Garros, this time in a 5-hour, 29-minute final-monstre, one of the most dramatic and heavy matches of their confrontation. Sinner, however, does not fold. At Wimbledon, he takes his finest revenge, beating Alcaraz in the final in four sets and earning one of the most significant achievements of his career. It’s a champion’s answer, coming on the most prestigious stage.

The Spaniard, however, relaunches again in the final part of the season. He wins the Cincinnati final, interrupted by Sinner’s withdrawal, and then also takes the US Open final in four sets. Sinner still manages to close the year with a strong signal, however, beating Alcaraz in the final of the ATP Finals in Turin: an important success, in front of the home crowd, that makes the overall balance less heavy and reaffirms that the challenge is far from closed.

What makes this rivalry special is not only the technical level. It is its completeness. Sinner and Alcaraz have faced each other on concrete, grass and clay. They have played in Masters 1000s, Slams and Finals. They have crossed paths in the first rounds, semifinals and finals. They have given rise to short matches and grueling marathons. They have both won on the world’s most important courts. In other words, nothing is missing.