Serie A, salvation sprint between Lecce and Cremonese: schedule and scenarios

With three matches still to be played and the relegations of Pisa and Hellas Verona made official last Friday night, the fight to remain in Serie A actually still involves two teams, one of which will have to move down a division next season: these are Lecce and Cremonese. Although potentially reachable by the grigiorossi, Fiorentina and Cagliari can no longer go straight down because of the regulation on teams with equal points and could, in a very remote eventuality, play at most in the play-off for staying in A. Here are the schedules and scenarios for the two main candidates:

Lecce (36th vs Juventus at home, 37th vs Sassuolo away, 38th vs Genoa at home)
For Lecce, which starts with 32 points and has the direct clashes in its favor, the key is simple: Eusebio Di Francesco’s team must prevent Cremonese from recovering five points on the Giallorossi in the last three days. Translated: if Lecce scores 5 points or more, and reaches at least 37, it is mathematically safe no matter what. With 4 points or less it remains safe only if Cremonese fails to make a sprint enough to gain the necessary margin.

Cremonese (36th vs Pisa at home, 37th vs Udinese away, 38th vs Como at home)
For Cremonese, which starts from 28 and is at a disadvantage in terms of direct confrontations, the equation is specular: in order to save itself, it must necessarily end the championship with more points than Lecce. This means, for example, three wins out of three with a Lecce unable to score more than 4 points in the last few matches, 8 points with a Lecce stopped at 3, 7 with a Lecce at 2, 6 with a Lecce at one, 5 with a Lecce at zero. Putting up 4 points or less, Cremonese could not overtake Lecce by any means.

For Cagliari and Fiorentina, on the other hand, it is enough to pick up a point in the next three to be in no more danger: the Rossoblù play against Udinese and Torino at home before closing at the San Siro against Milan, while the Viola have Genoa at home, Juventus away and Atalanta at the “Franchi” in their last three.