Italy can look ahead, but there is one aspect that worries Roberto Mancini

The international break that just ended for the Azzurri left a decidedly positive impression, especially given what happened after the crushing home loss to Belgium: Italy’s response, with two convincing wins over Turkey sandwiched between a valuable draw against France in Saint-Denis, allows Roberto Mancini to look forward with optimism to the final two matchdays of the Nations League group stage—though there is one detail that prevents him from letting his guard down.

The standings, for now, are looking good for the Azzurri. With 7 points, Italy sits in second place behind France, the leader of League A Group 1 with 10 points, and ahead of Belgium, which remains at 6. This situation keeps Italy’s chances of qualifying for the quarterfinals—reserved for the top two teams in the group—intact.

While last place is now out of the question—since Turkey cannot exceed 6 points even if it wins both of its remaining matches—the race to avoid relegation is far from over. The competition’s format, in fact, poses a significant risk: National teams that finish third in their group are not automatically guaranteed to remain in League A, because the two worst third-place finishers are forced to play a playoff against one of the second-place teams from League B.

Avoiding any risk of a playoff would carry significant weight, and not just in terms of international prestige. Remaining permanently in League A allows a team to maintain a more favorable position in future draws, defend an important spot in the FIFA rankings, and continue to benefit from the higher financial rewards reserved for the national teams competing in League A of the Nations League.

For this reason, the next two matches—against France on November 12 at San Siro and in Belgium three days later—will not only be about securing a spot in the quarterfinals. Italy’s goal will also be to definitively secure its place at the highest level of European soccer, warding off a threat that, at least for now, still looms in the background.