Jannik Sinner: Who Will Surpass Him in the Rankings? Ben Shelton Is Hoping, Too. The Real Challenge Begins in the Spring
It’s not just the No. 1 spot in the ATP rankings: Jannik Sinner, who took a break to address his right knee issue once and for all, risks losing more ranking points in the coming months—even after his return to the court. The Italian will have to pay the price for his unusual 2026 season: after dominating the first half of the year by winning practically everything, Sinner’s reign came to an abrupt end in July.
The loss of the top spot is certain: Alexander Zverev overtaking him is only a matter of time and is about to happen. The German tennis player, a two-time Grand Slam champion this season, could become number one as early as November 2, or seven days later: it will depend on the results of the Masters 1000 tournaments in Shanghai and Vienna.
Sinner will finish the year with 7,950 points: his second-place ranking could be threatened by Carlos Alcaraz (4,560 points), who, however, would need to have a perfect end-of-year run in Shanghai, Paris, and the ATP Finals in Turin. There’s also a chance for the fourth-ranked player, Ben Shelton, who, with 4,430 points, theoretically has a shot at overtaking Sinner or at least joining the fight for a spot on the podium.
The real challenges for Sinner, however, will come at the start of 2027: the Italian, who will face the Australian Open after a six-month hiatus, will have to defend the 800 points he earned in 2026 in Melbourne, when he reached the semifinals. Starting in March, the real grueling stretch will begin for the champion from Sesto, who will have to defend his titles at the Masters 1000 tournaments in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome—5,000 points he risks losing in part (unless he goes on another incredible winning streak), which could cost him further drops in the rankings.
But for now, the Italian is solely focused on recovering from his injury: a 100% Sinner is capable of overcoming any challenge, as he has already demonstrated in recent years.
