Carlos Alcaraz resigned to ceding the top spot to Jannik Sinner

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“I’m going to lose the world number one ranking.” Carlos Alcaraz, after easily disposing of Sebastian Baez in the second round of the Monte Carlo Country Club Masters 1000, did not mince words to describe the situation in the rankings. After the Sunshine Double (the double in the 1000 in Indian Wells and Miami), it seems Sinner himself has the wind in his sails in the run-up to the top of the ATP ranking. At the moment, after their respective second-round victories, Alcaraz leads the ranking by about 1,200 points, but this week in Monte Carlo he will have to defend his tournament victory (1,000 points). Jannik, on the other hand, was still serving his disqualification for the Clostebol case a year ago at this time and, as a result, all the points he collects between now and Rome will be valuable in narrowing the gap.

“I don’t know if the overtaking will come in this tournament or in the next one,” Alcaraz explained, adding, “I have many points to defend and it will be difficult to confirm them all. And even in case I make it, Jannik will gain some in this tournament, where he’s not defending any, so I’ll try to play my best and we’ll see what happens. Of course, right now, the first place in the rankings is not something that worries me.”

The overtaking could materialize as early as this week or in the coming weeks, much will depend on the ATP points to be defended on clay. Alcaraz, in fact, will have to defend 4,330 points (titles in Monte Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros, plus a final in Barcelona), while Sinner “just” 1,650 (finals in Rome and Roland Garros).

In Monte Carlo, therefore, Sinner could become world number one in several scenarios: winning the title, reaching the semifinals with Alcaraz stopped in the round of 16, or reaching the final without the Spaniard in the final act. Behind Alcaraz’s words, then, there seems to be no superstition: a feat will be needed to avoid overtaking by the end of the season on clay. If it does not happen in the Principality, the change at the top could come between Madrid and Paris.

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