Nations League: Italy Advances to the Quarterfinals If…: All Possible Scenarios

The stunning victory over France at San Siro has propelled Italy to the top of Group 1 in League A, tied with the Galletti at 10 points, but ahead on head-to-head record. Belgium is in second place with nine points, while Turkey remains winless with five losses in its first five matches.

To qualify for the Nations League quarterfinals, Italy simply needs to avoid a loss in Brussels next Sunday against Belgium: a draw would bring the Azzurri to 11 points, while Van Bommel’s team would remain at 10.

With a win, the national team would be guaranteed first place in the group, regardless of France’s result, thanks to their favorable head-to-head record. If they lose in Belgium, however, Mancini’s men would remain on 10 points and would have to hope for a Turkish victory over France to avoid slipping to third place. In any case, the Azzurri will remain in League A for the next edition of the competition.

If Italy finishes first in the group, it would be placed in the top seed pot for the draw to determine matchups in the next stages of the competition and would have the advantage of playing the second leg at home.

The evening at San Siro got off to a rough start: Zidane’s France took the lead in the 10th minute through Olise, capitalizing on a mistake by Donnarumma in the build-up. The Azzurri, however, fought back, and in the 26th minute, Pio Esposito equalized, beating Upamecano to a cross from Cambiaghi. In the second half, after Sebastiano Esposito missed a penalty in the 57th minute (foul by Gusto on Cambiaghi), Frattesi scored the go-ahead goal in the 62nd minute with a first-time shot off a cross from Dimarco, who had just entered the game. In the 74th minute, Pio Esposito sealed the victory from the penalty spot after Upamecano fouled Vergara, bringing his tally to nine goals in 14 appearances for the Azzurri.