Jannik Sinner: Unpleasant surprises on the horizon for All Souls’ Day

Jannik Sinner is set to lose his No. 1 world ranking within a few weeks. The Italian ended his season early due to knee problems, with plans to return in 2027, but he will remain at the top of the ATP rankings at least until Sunday, November 1. From that point on, Alexander Zverev could overtake him, with several scenarios still possible depending on the German’s results in upcoming tournaments.

Sinner currently holds the top spot with 10,950 points, but in the coming weeks he will have to contend with the expiration of points earned last season. On Monday, October 26, he will lose the 500 points earned from his victory in Vienna in 2025, while on Monday, November 2, the 1,000 points from his triumph at the Paris Masters 1000 will be removed from the tally. In the November 2 ranking update, therefore, the South Tyrolean’s total will drop to 9,450 points.

Behind him is Alexander Zverev, who would currently stand at 9,000 points on that same date. The German, however, is still in contention in Shanghai, where another 950 points are up for grabs, and at the end of the month he will also be competing in Vienna, a tournament that could earn him up to 500 points. Furthermore, if he wins at least one match in Austria, he would discard the 10 points he earned in Montreal in 2026.

The situation could change significantly as early as the Shanghai tournament. If Zverev were to reach the final, on Monday, October 19, he would virtually climb to 10,320 points, while Sinner would remain at 10,950. A week later, as the 500 points from Vienna expire for the Italian, the German would reach 10,000 points, compared to his rival’s 10,450.

At that point, even without earning any more points in Vienna, Zverev would be certain to become the world No. 1 starting Monday, November 2. With the expiration of the 1,000 points from Paris, Sinner would drop to 9,450, while Zverev would stand at 9,600. However, Zverev overtaking Sinner is not yet inevitable. If Zverev fails to reach the final in Shanghai, the race for the top spot could drag on, and the result in Vienna would take on even greater significance.