Venice, Monza and Frosinone, all in 180': scenarios for direct promotion

The race for Serie A enters its final stretch with three teams still in play for the two spots worth direct promotion: Venezia, Monza and Frosinone. The Laggunari lead the standings with 78 points, while the Brianzoli and Ciociari are chasing tied at 75. Two days remain, six points available and a regulation that, in case of a tied finish, puts the avulse ranking before the overall goal difference in the middle. A detail that can weigh heavily.

Venice is the team closest to the finish line. With two games left to play, against Spezia and Palermo, the Veneti only need a win or even two draws to secure promotion. Even in the case of finishing tied on points with one of the pursuers, the situation remains favorable: in the direct clashes with Monza, the balance is clearly in favor of the lagoon players, while with Frosinone there is balance, but the overall goal difference (the next criterion) remains largely on the side of the leader. For Venezia to really risk it, it would have to lose both matches and see Monza and Frosinone pick up at least four points.

Behind Stroppa’s team will instead be the balanced duel between Monza and Frosinone. The two teams are paired at 75, but in direct clashes the advantage belongs to Monza: in the season, the Brianzoli won one direct clash and drew the other, thus building a favorable avulse ranking with four points against the only one collected by the yellow and blue. In the event of a tied finish, therefore, it would be Monza that would rise to Serie A. For this reason, Frosinone cannot simply replicate the path of the biancorossi in the last two days: it must necessarily score more points, or hope for a Monza misstep that would reopen the games.

The hypothesis of a three-way finish, still possible given the various combinations, also remains in the background. In that case, the avulse ranking would still reward Venezia with as many as 10 points in the four direct clashes, ahead of Monza with 5, promoted ahead of Frosinone, which, on the other hand, in the challenges at the top has obtained just one point.

The picture is clear: Venezia sees Serie A, while Monza and Frosinone are preparing for a head-to-head that could be decided on a detail, an episode, a goal in the last two days. The sprint is on, the final straight has begun, and direct promotion will be decided at the last gasp.

Serie B, direct promotion sprint: the calendar

37th day – May 1, 3 p.m.: Spezia-Venezia, Mantova-Monza, Juve Stabia-Frosinone

38th day – May 8, 3 p.m.: Venezia-Palermo, Monza-Empoli, Frosinone-Mantova