Jannik Sinner: A possibility has emerged that could cost him dearly
Jannik Sinner maintains a 1,810-point lead over Alexander Zverev in the latest ATP rankings update, but that margin is set to shrink in the coming days. Before the start of the ATP 500 tournament in Beijing, the Italian will lose the 500 points he earned from his 2025 title, while the German will have to discard the 100 points he earned a year ago for reaching the quarterfinals. Zverev will also regain the 40 points from the 2026 United Cup.
The gap between the two will thus narrow to 1,370 points. This situation makes the race for the top spot even more interesting, especially ahead of the two Asian tournaments in Beijing and Shanghai. In Beijing, 500 points will be up for grabs. Zverev, however, will also have to discard the 10 points he earned in Montreal in 2026 to make room for his result in China. In purely theoretical terms, the German could therefore further reduce the gap to 880 points behind Sinner.
The next stop will be the Shanghai Masters 1000. Points earned in 2025 will be formally discarded on October 12, but the tournament is scheduled for October 7–18. For this reason, the results from the previous edition will actually be subtracted when the rankings are updated on Monday, October 19. After Beijing and Tokyo, in fact, the ATP rankings will be updated midweek, on October 6 or 7.
Sinner and Zverev will also start on equal footing in Shanghai: both will lose 50 points as a result of their first-round exits in the 2025 tournament. The gap between them, therefore, will remain unchanged from what it will be at the end of the Beijing tournament. If Zverev were to arrive in Shanghai trailing by 880 points, the picture would be very clear: by winning the Chinese Masters 1000, the German could earn enough points to overtake Sinner by 120 points.
To make the leap, however, a very specific scenario would have to play out. Zverev would need to win both the Beijing tournament and the Shanghai Masters 1000, while Sinner would have to skip both events or earn no more than 110 points combined across the two tournaments. The race for the No. 1 spot, therefore, remains in Sinner’s hands, but the coming weeks will be particularly important in determining the balance of power at the top of the ATP rankings.
