Italy’s repechage to World Cup, UAE’s move changes the game
The United Arab Emirates’ resounding exit from Opec (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is not just a technical episode related to the oil market. It is a political gesture of historic significance, signaling the emergence of a new Middle Eastern order under the pressure of the Iran war. And which, in a way, could strengthen the already strong Emirati bid in case Iran does not participate in the World Cup to be played in North America: the axis with Washington and Israel has been unambiguously strengthened.
It is an alliance based not on ideological affinities, but on a cold calculation: who can guarantee real protection in case of war. The Abrahamic Accords signed in 2020 under the first Trump Administration appear today no longer as an isolated diplomatic gesture, but as the anticipation of a structural change. The exit from Opec fits into this picture. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had for decades been an instrument of collective power in the Arab world. Today, in the eyes of the Emirates, that model appears obsolete. Production quotas limit the ability to react quickly to shocks such as the one caused by the war.
Canada has meanwhile denied entry to Iran’s Football Federation president, Mehdi Taj, and two other executives in his entourage, thus preventing the three from attending the FIFA Congress that has just begun in Vancouver.
Despite the diplomatic affair, at the opening of the proceedings FIFA President Gianni Infantino confirmed that the Iranian national team will regularly take part in the 2026 World Cup. “Iran will certainly be present at the 2026 World Cup and will play its three matches as scheduled in the United States,” he said.
Outside the FIFA Congress, meanwhile, some 30 protesters wrapped in Iranian flags and holding placards gathered to express their desire for regime change, chanting choruses in support of Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah and a figure in the Iranian opposition. “The Revolutionary Guards are terrorists,” they shouted. “FIFA, no deal with terrorists.” In this climate, the odds of Italy’s possible participation in the World Cup plummeted, despite Infantino’s words.
The affair is intertwined with diplomatic tensions directly affecting Italy. U.S. President Donald Trump has called a possible withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country “likely,” claiming that Italy “has not been at all helpful” in the conflict with Iran. “Why shouldn’t I? Italy has not been of any help to us,” Trump said, adding criticism of Spain as well. Responding was Defense Minister Guido Crosetto: “I would not understand the reasons. As is obvious to anyone, we did not use Hormuz. And we also made ourselves available for a mission to protect shipping. Which moreover was very much appreciated by the U.S. military.”
On the front of the possible repechage, the main issue would not be about the athletes themselves. As U.S. Secretary of State Rubio pointed out, “The problem would not be the athletes. It would be some of the other people Iran would like to bring in, some of whom have ties to the Revolutionary Guards. What they can’t do is bring a bunch of Revolutionary Guards terrorists into our country and pretend they are journalists and athletic trainers.” From Iran, technical commissioner Amir Ghalenoei spoke bluntly, “There is no reason not to participate in the World Cup. God willing, we will do it,” while Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali reiterated that “if the safety of the national team players in the United States is guaranteed, we will leave for the World Cup.” The Iranian national team has planned preparation friendlies in Turkey, with Spain, the current European champions, among possible opponents, before the move to the United States. Iran will then face New Zealand and Belgium in Los Angeles on June 16 and June 21, respectively, closing the round with Egypt in Seattle on June 26.
