Italy’s repechage to the World Cup, comes a ruling without appeal
While the possibility of Italy’s repechage for the 2026 World Cup, to be held in the summer between the United States, Mexico and Canada, continues to be discussed, a new no-holds-barred ruling arrives. Based on the current situation, we asked Artificial Intelligence for a realistic and therefore not “theoretical” estimate of the percentage chance that the Azzurri will eventually participate in the World Cup. And the hopes, while not nil, are now slim to none.
As we point out by putting the data together, the initial event is already unlikely. Indeed, it is needed before Iran gives up on the 2026 World Cup, is excluded, or cannot participate for geopolitical reasons. And at the moment FIFA continues to consider Iran a regular qualifier. Even if Iran were to exit, moreover, Italy would not be the natural replacement.
The most logical and most cited line is that, in the event of Iran’s defection, a replacement would be made with an Asian national team (which has thus participated in the AFC qualifiers). In this case, excluding Italy of course, the main bid would probably involve the United Arab Emirates or other better placed AFC team.
In any case, FIFA has total discretion over the decision. The regulations leave FIFA with “sole discretion” in choosing the eventual replacement, and this is the only reason why Italy is still being talked about. There are essentially three reasons why the Azzurri still appear to be in the running: that Italy is the unqualified national team with the highest ranking, its participation in the 2026 World Cup commercially would be very appealing, and some media scenarios speculate about an extraordinary mini-playoff.
In spite of all this, the concrete signs are negative. Indeed, at the moment, there is “no record of any plan” from FIFA to replace Iran with Italy, the Italian government and CONI are against the idea, and finally, sporting precedent and logic favor a team from the same confederation. So, translating it into practical percentages: Iran regularly in the World Cup is estimated at 95-98%, with a scenario that opens the place for a repechage reduced to 2-5%. Moreover, that Italy is actually chosen by FIFA in that scenario represents the minority of possibilities at the moment. Hence the very low final estimate.
