Jannik Sinner: Here’s What It Will Take to Stay No. 1 Through the End of the Year

Jannik Sinner was forced to skip the Montreal and Cincinnati Masters 1000 tournaments due to a knee injury, and he now hopes to recover in time for the U.S. Open, scheduled for the end of the month. But his position at the top of the ATP rankings remains secure: the Italian has begun his 84th week as world No. 1, and his next goal is Andre Agassi’s record of 101 weeks, which ranks ninth on this particular list.

Thanks to Alexander Zverev’s inconsistent results and Carlos Alcaraz’s injury, Sinner’s position remains solid despite having played just one tournament (Wimbledon) in the last three months. The Italian has secured his spot at the top of the rankings at least until early October, but he has a good chance of staying there until the end of the year.

After withdrawing from Cincinnati, Sinner will lose the 650 points he earned for reaching the 2025 final and will drop to around 12,800. Alcaraz, who is also absent, will lose the 1,000 points from last year’s victory and will drop to around 7,160. From now until the end of the season, approximately 7,500 points remain up for grabs: the US Open (2,000), the Shanghai Masters (1,000), the Paris Masters (1,000), Beijing and Vienna (500 each), and the ATP Finals in Turin (up to 1,500). Sinner must defend the 4,850 points he earned in 2025 at the US Open, Beijing, Shanghai, Vienna, Paris, and the ATP Finals in Turin. According to the most realistic estimates, to remain No. 1 with a comfortable margin, he would need to earn 3,000–3,500 points in the coming months.

A plausible path could be: reaching the quarterfinals or semifinals at the US Open, a strong showing in Shanghai or Beijing, a title in Vienna or Paris, and a spot in the Finals. With 3,200–3,500 points, even in the worst-case scenario where Alcaraz or Zverev were to win nearly everything that remains, the lead held by the star from Sesto Pusteria would remain substantial. The champion from Murcia, who is recovering from a wrist injury, has fewer points to defend but has also played fewer tournaments so far in 2026. Zverev can close the gap, but making up 4,000–5,000 points in just a few months is nearly impossible without a major slump by Sinner.