Jannik Sinner: Rafael Nadal’s shocking precedent doesn’t scare the'Azzurro

Jannik Sinner arrives at Roland Garros as a big favorite: the Blue, who won the first five Masters 1000s in 2026, is in the hunt for his first victory in the Paris Slam and can take advantage of the absence of arch-rival Carlos Alcaraz to realize his dream. The bookmakers are all on his side: Sinner is quoted between 1.28 and 1.35, one of the lowest odds ever. According to ESPN Research’s historical analysis, since 1990 the only other player to come to Paris with a lower quote was Rafael Nadal, who in 2009 was given at 1.25.

Nadal in 2009 in fact arrived at Roland Garros with a status similar to that of the Blue’s today: 31 consecutive victories, as well as 4 consecutive titles under the Eiffel Tower. Sinner, on the other hand, is fresh off 29 wins in a row on the ATP circuit, and three titles in a row on clay.

The Azure’s fans hope that the similarities end there: in 2009, the heavily favored Nadal in fact collapsed resoundingly in the round of 16 against Robin Soderling. A historic knockout and one of the Manacor champion’s very rare defeats on clay. Bookmakers cite precisely Nadal’s 2009 precedent as the sole and main warning for bettors intent on betting en masse on Sinner’s success.

But at the moment the Azzurro’s current form leaves no room for doubt: thanks precisely to targeted winter preparation, the champion from Sesto Pusteria won his first major tournaments on clay this year, Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome. Now he’s aiming for a historic poker, and to definitively erase the huge disappointment of last season, when he lost in the final to Alcaraz after wasting three match points.

It is Nadal himself, when asked by La Gazzetta dello Sport, who extols the qualities of the Azzurro while warning about the risks of the weather: “It’s always difficult to imagine a similar level of success and continuity. What he is doing is extraordinarily complicated: he has incredible consistency. Since Australia he has lost only one match and his string of consecutive wins is impressive.” The Spaniard, who is well aware of the burden of arriving in Paris as the clear favorite, does not open up about the future: “Where can he go? What is his limit? Life will determine that. His personality, motivation, physique-these are aspects that are impossible to predict.”